DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS SEMINAR SERIES (2018-19)

Dr. Somdeep Chatterjee, Assistant Professor at the Indian Institute of Management in Lucknow, India, is going to deliver a talk on

‘Voting for the Underdog or Jumping on the Bandwagon? Evidence from India’s Exit Poll Ban’

Dr. Somdeep Chatterjee works as an Assistant Professor at IIM Lucknow.He mainly works in the domain of empirical microeconomics. Broadly, his research interests are in the fields of development economics, economics of labor and education, political economy and behavioral economics. After completing his MA Economics from Javadpur University, Kolkata he moved to University of Houston to complete his PhD. Prior to joining IIM Lucknow, he was an Assistant Professor of Economics at FLAME University, Pune.  He has published several articles and research papers in journals like , BE journal of Economic Analysis and Policy , IZA Journal of Labour and Development, Economics, Bulletin of Economic Research among others. He is also  designated as Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO Fellow), Maastricht. 

Abstract

Exit poll surveys during elections are conducted to predict the outcome of the actual elections. However, such polls have historically been controversial, particularly for multi-phase elections, as they could potentially influence the behavior of voters in the latter rounds of voting. If subsequent voters are likelier to vote for the predicted frontrunner, it is known as the bandwagon voting phenomenon whereas if they vote for the predicted trailing candidate, the phenomenon is known as underdog voting. To avoid such issues, in 2009 the election administration in the world’s largest democracy (India) had introduced a blanket ban on exit polls being published in the media until all rounds of an election are completed. Exploiting the potentially exogenous timing of this reform and using administrative data to compare states which went to elections before and after this ban, we estimate that this reform led to an increase in voter turnout and winning margins. We also find that vote share increases for the winner and decreases for others, suggesting evidence of underdog voting behavior among the Indian electorate. Further, we find that the ban leads to more candidates contesting elections and fewer withdrawals suggesting that, in the counterfactual with exit polls, candidates may believe that voters would engage in bandwagon voting.