The Syrian Interim Government, National Liberation Front, Turkistan Islamic Party and various Kurdish groups are all a part of the Opposition and have differing interests. Once the euphoria of overthrowing Assad fades away, will these groups be able to work together? The last thing one needs is the fight to restart.

New Delhi: Syrians and large sections of the international community have welcomed the fall of Bashar-Al-Assad. Assad’s ouster brings an end to a regime built around oppression and brutality. However, this tectonic shift comes when the Middle East is on a knife’s edge. The ongoing war in Gaza and the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon has increased the possibility of a larger regional war. The recent developments in Syria could have important implications for the current tensions in the Middle East. While the Iranian regime has lost an important ally in Assad, Israel will not be rejoicing.

Hostile groups could still exploit their power vacuum in Syria, further complicating the security situation. Overall, the developments in Syria could potentially de-stabilise the region further. As the euphoria of Assad’s fall subsides, the deep seeded divisions within the opposition could come out in the open.

Assad’s fall a loss to Iran and a mixed bag for Israel

Under Assad, Syria was an important asset for Iran. Having a friendly regime allowed them to ship resources to Hezbollah via Syria. This land route via Syria was Iran’s only practical connection to Hezbollah. The timing of Assad’s departure could not have come at a worse time for Iran. The Israel operation in Lebanon significantly weakened the Hezbollah. Over the last few months, the group has had its entire leadership and command structure wiped out. With the only land connection to Iran gone, this will likely further weaken the Hezbollah. In the medium to long-term, it will force Iran to relook at its deterrence strategy against Israel. The use of proxies like Hezbollah may not be as effective as before.

Israel has been cautious in welcoming the fall of Assad’s regime. This is very much on the expected lines. On the one hand, Israel will be happy to see Hezbollah and Iran lose an important ally. The loss of a major supply route for Hezbollah is also a positive for Israel. At the same time, Israelis have been very cautious. The vacuum left behind by the Assad regime is a cause for concern. Despite the international sanctions, the Syrian Government under Assad had a well-equipped military with an air force and navy. More concerningly, Assad had a stockpile of chemical weapons (which were used against civilians during the war). With the power vacuum, Israel is concerned about the possibility of these weapons falling into the hands of hostile groups.

It does not come as a surprise that over the last 72 hours, Israel has carried out multiple air strikes against Syrian Air Force and Naval targets. Reports suggest that Israel has carried out over 480 air raids across the country. In a statement to the media, the Israeli Foreign Minister argued that the air strikes had been carried out to prevent arms from getting into enemy hands. Besides, Israeli ground forces have also occupied the buffer zones in the Golan Heights. Israel’s military actions indicate that it is concerned about the political vacuum in Syria. Assad’s fall has bought with it some relief and new security concerns.

What happens to regional stability?

Will Assad’s departure bring more instability to an already volatile security environment? Unfortunately, this is a legitimate concern. The concern stems from the opposition being far from a united front. While the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the largest opposition group, it is far from the only stakeholder. The Syrian Interim Government, National Liberation Front, Turkistan Islamic Party and various Kurdish groups are all a part of the Opposition and have differing interests. Once the euphoria of overthrowing Assad fades away, will these groups be able to work together? The last thing one needs is the fight to restart.

The divided opposition also raises concerns over an emerging proxy war. External powers supported various opposition groups based on what suited their interests. The Turkish Government was known to support the HTS. While the HTS was fighting the Assad regime, they were also keeping the Kurdish forces at bay, something that Turkey was keenly interested in. On the other hand, the Western and Arab powers were wary of the HTS and supported the Free Syrian Army (FSA). FSA’s alliance with Kurdish groups continues to be a matter of concern for Turkey. Russia and Iran, on the other hand, backed the Assad regime. With external powers having such diverging interests, there is the alarming possibility of a new proxy war emerging in Syria.

Concerns have also been raised about the HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Previously, he was a part of Al-Qaeda and other associated groups. His past has raised many red flags regarding the kind of regime that would emerge in Syria. While al-Julani has argued that his Al-Qaeda days are behind him, only time will tell if he has genuinely transformed. Having an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group in control of Syria would be a security nightmare.

The international community will be keeping a close eye on Syria over the next few months. As Syria transitions into a post-Assad reality, there is little clarity over what this reality will look like. In the immediate short term, Assad’s departure has impacted the regional balance of power. Iran has lost a close ally, while Israel has reasons to celebrate and be concerned. The post-Assad anarchy could be a grave security threat for the Israelis. Over the longer term, the changes in Syria are bound to reshape regional stability. With Assad gone, can the opposition groups put their differences aside and work together in a new system? Their ability to do this will have important implications for long-term stability in the region.

Author: Prof. Sanjal Shastri, Faculty of International Studies, FLAME University.